Calgary or Edmonton for multi-unit: how to think about it

Investors usually arrive having already decided, on the strength of a headline about population growth. The data supports a more careful answer, and in one respect it argues against the optimism the headlines carry.

Everything below is from CMHC's rental market survey work. It describes conditions, not a forecast, and it is a snapshot that ages.

The finding that matters most

In 2025, vacancy rates for purpose-built rentals rose across every major census metropolitan area, pushing the national rate above its ten-year average. That happened alongside historically high rental construction.

This is the single most important thing for anyone modelling a new build, and it is the opposite of the story most investors have in mind. Supply is arriving at scale. It is being absorbed, but absorption is no longer outrunning delivery the way it did in the tight years.

Nationally, the average rent paid by all tenants for two-bedroom units rose 5.1%. Note the phrasing: rent paid by all tenants, which includes sitting tenants under existing leases. It is not the same as what a new unit achieves on turnover, and conflating the two is how a pro forma ends up optimistic.

Calgary

Calgary's vacancy rate held at 5%, with demand keeping pace against a large supply increase. Purpose-built rental supply grew by 11% in 2025, the fastest pace in decades, concentrated in higher-end units.

Two things follow from that.

The first is genuinely positive: demand absorbed an 11% supply increase without vacancy deteriorating. That is a real signal about the depth of the market.

The second is a caution. CMHC reports landlords holding two-bedroom rents steady to retain tenants and avoid vacancy, and average two-bedroom turnover rent declining in Calgary. Turnover rent is what a new building rents at. A declining turnover rent in a market absorbing record supply is precisely the condition under which a new entrant priced at last year's assumptions underperforms.

New supply being concentrated in higher-end units matters too. If your building competes at the top of the market, that is where the competition just arrived.

Edmonton

Edmonton's purpose-built vacancy rose to 3.8%, driven by strong completions and slower household formation, despite continued migration.

Lower vacancy than Calgary, but moving in the wrong direction for the same reason: completions outpacing formation.

The more interesting Edmonton fact is structural. Over 2,000 rental condos were added in 2025, taking condo apartments to 37% of the rental universe, and vacancy for those units stayed low at 1.7%.

That is a materially different competitive picture. More than a third of Edmonton's rental stock is condo, and the modern condo segment is clearing at less than half the purpose-built vacancy rate. A purpose-built building there is not only competing with other purpose-built supply. It is competing with a large and evidently well-absorbed condo rental pool, and that pool responds to different signals than institutional supply does.

How the choice should actually be made

The honest answer is that neither city is the answer, because the question is usually the wrong one.

If your mandate is a single building, the metro-level statistic is close to irrelevant. An 8-door on a specific infill lot competes within a few kilometres, not within a census metropolitan area. Submarket and product beat city every time at that scale, and a citywide vacancy rate tells you almost nothing about your street.

If your mandate is a portfolio, the metro statistics start to matter, because you will end up owning the average. There the relevant questions are which market you can build repeatedly in, where you have or can build a relationship with a builder, and which one you can actually get to when something goes wrong.

In both cases the program comes first. MLI Select's point tiers, the debt coverage test, and the borrower guideline apply identically in both cities. A file that fails coverage fails it in Calgary and in Edmonton. Choosing a city before understanding whether your position supports the file is choosing the least binding variable first.

What the data does not settle

Rising vacancy in both markets, against record completions, is a condition to underwrite for rather than a reason to avoid either city. It argues for conservative rent assumptions, genuine reserves, and real scepticism about pro formas built on last year's turnover rents.

It does not argue that Alberta multi-unit stopped working. It argues that the margin for optimistic assumptions narrowed, which is a different and more useful statement.

What this does not tell you

These are CMHC survey figures for 2025, reported at metro level. They are not a forecast, not a recommendation about either city, and not an assessment of any building. Conditions change and the survey is periodic. Anyone relying on these numbers should check the current report rather than this page.

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